Bitcoin’s price has climbed 55% in 2024, including a 12.5% gain in October. Recent increases have been fueled by an overall improving risk-on sentiment led by better-than-expected Wall Street earnings.
Additionally, investors are increasingly pricing in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in November, with pro-crypto Donald Trump’s rising odds of winning the 2024 presidential election furthering the optimism.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin BTC
$68,515 appears well-positioned to enter a bull run cycle for the remainder of 2024 and beyond. Meanwhile, certain technical and onchain indicators suggest a similar upside outlook.
Bitcoin price will hit $100K in 2025, fractal suggests
The first signs of Bitcoin entering a new bull cycle come from its two-month logarithmic chart, which independent market analyst Coosh Alemzadeh shared on X.
The chart marks Bitcoin’s bullish phases, such as the 60x increase from around 2011, a 20x increase in 2017 and a 6x increase during the 2020-2021 bull run.
These phases follow a pattern in which Bitcoin’s price first consolidates before a big, almost vertical rally occurs.
As of October 2024, Bitcoin was exhibiting signs of breaking out of its prolonged consolidation phase, which often signals the start of a bull run within the parabolic channel marked by two red dashed lines.
Market analyst Ted Pillows echoed this sentiment, highlighting a similar breakout from Bitcoin’s consolidation channel.
He said that Bitcoin’s “parabolic phase” has started, aligning with historical patterns of rapid price acceleration.
Alemzadeh’s fractal analysis predicts that Bitcoin will rise above $100,000 in 2025 and $250,000 in the long term.
Bitcoin whale data shows pre-COVID rally behavior
Another bullish sign for Bitcoin comes from its onchain data tracking whale activity on spot exchanges.
The “Exchange Whale Ratio,” represented by the 30-day moving average, currently mirrors patterns last observed in 2020 after the COVID-19 crash. In that instance, whales aggressively accumulated Bitcoin, which preceded the massive bull run that took Bitcoin to new all-time highs by the end of 2021.
As of October 2024, a similar whale accumulation pattern suggests that large holders are positioning themselves for potential price gains, with CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu noting:
“They [whales] could be positioning themselves to benefit from the potential long-term price increase after the next Bitcoin halving.”
Stablecoin dominance is declining
The third indicator focuses on stablecoin dominance. Market analyst Doctor Magic points out that the dominance of stablecoins like USDT, USDC and DAI has steadily declined since mid-2024.
Historically, when capital starts to rotate out of stablecoins, it has been a precursor to massive price increases across the top-ranking cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, as shown below.
The decline in stablecoin dominance suggests that investors anticipate Bitcoin to appreciate against the US dollar, reflecting a growing risk appetite and confidence in the market.
If this trend continues, as liquidity flows back into BTC and drives its price higher, it could be confirmation that Bitcoin’s parabolic phase is beginning.
