China’s battered stock market has experienced a resurgence since late September powered by the barrage of stimulus by Beijing.
But this surge could be sucking capital out of the crypto market, capping the upside in bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, and other Asian markets, according to observers.
“The current surge in Chinese stocks, driven by the stimulus package and investor activity during the national holiday week, represents a calculated risk-reward trade for savvy investors. Even with a 3-5% cost to convert [stablecoin] USDT into equities, the potential upside of 50-70% makes this a strategic move,” Danny Chong, co-founder of multi-staking protocol Tranchess and co-founder of Digital Assets Association Singapore, told CoinDesk in an email.
Since Sept. 24, the Shanghai Composite Index has jumped over 20%, reaching its highest since May 2023. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which constitutes Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, has jumped over 25%, according to data source TradingView.
The rally follows stimulus announcements that included interest rate cuts, liquidity support for stocks, banking system capital injections, and a promise to support property prices. The enormous stimulus, estimated to be over 7.5 trillion yuan (CNY), has been widely perceived as uber-bullish for bitcoin and other risk assets. Bitcoin, however, remains flat-lined at around $64,000 in the wake of the China stimulus, extending a six-month-long consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000.
Beijing’s Bazooka is also drawing capital from other Asian equity markets. “We are trimming our long positions across Asia to fund China purchases,” Eric Yee, senior portfolio manager at Atlantis Investment Management in Singapore, told Bloomberg.
Temporary shift
According to Chong, the capital shift is likely to be temporary and investors will eventually refocus on cryptocurrencies.
“This shift is likely to be temporary. Once the peak of the recent upward move in Chinese equities stabilizes, we can expect to see a redeployment of capital back into crypto. This is a prime example of the maturing mindset of investors who are willing to move across asset classes to optimize their returns,” Chong said.
Traditional market analysts believe Bejing’s latest stimulus falls short of addressing the real economic issues and may not lead to a long-lasting rally in Chinese stocks.
“Looking beyond the near-term sentiment boost, the effectiveness of the measures could fade unless some fundamental issues are addressed. The key one is fixing damaged balance sheets – especially those of the banks. Until that happens, any attempts to boost borrowing and leveraged risk-taking are likely to fail,” TS Lombard said in a note to clients on Oct. 2.
The firm added that the latest measures are only 1.5% of China’s gross domestic product, as opposed to 32% in 2008 and 22% in 2015-16, saying the spillovers from the stimulus are unlikely to be large this time.
BCA Research voiced a similar opinion last week, saying the rally in China’s stocks may not have legs.
