Bitcoin starts a new week pressuring key resistance as the May monthly close looms.
BTC price action is keeping bulls on their toes, as old all-time highs prove hard to flip to resistance. Can $69,000 fall by June?
A quiet start to the week sees Memorial Day in the United States keep institutional activity off the table until May 28.
Later, however, macroeconomic catalysts heat up in the form of U.S. data prints, which, as always, form a key focal point for crypto and risk assets.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has its own hurdles to contend with — consolidation below all-time highs has been ongoing for over two months, and a resolution of the status quo remains elusive.
Plenty of optimistic BTC price predictions are circulating, some including a six-figure target for BTC/USD in 2024, but concerns of a deeper retracement linger in the background.
As the market sits at a critical point, Cointelegraph takes a look at the factors set to potentially move them as May comes to an end.
BTC price snatches at key $69,000 level
Bitcoin saw a classic spate of weekend price action, heading above $69,000 but retracing after the weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
In so doing, it effectively closed its latest “gap” in CME Group Bitcoin futures markets — even with the U.S. closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
“Basic weekend price action so far,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a response on X (formerly Twitter).
The weekly close, which came in at around $68,500, was nonetheless Bitcoin’s strongest since the start of April.
Commenting on the latest developments, trading resource Material Indicators stressed the need to turn $69,000 into solid support.
“A green Weekly close for BTC is met with another failed attempt to R/S flip $69k and a new Trend Precognition (down) signal on the W chart,” part of an X post read, referring to one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
“For me, a push above $71,250 invalidates.”
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows key areas of liquidity built up around spot price — leaving traders to guess which will be taken first.
At the time of writing on May 27, $68,100 and $69,800 were key levels of interest, the latter in the middle of a “cloud” of liquidity across order books.
“Bitcoin aims to consolidate in these levels,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, summarized on the day.
“Where to buy? Losing $66K and I think we’ll test range low and be buying there again. That’s the level where you’d want to get your purchases ready.”
Breakout or breakdown?
Where Bitcoin heads once it leaves its current range is a major preoccupation for some market observers.
Consensus is forming over a break to the upside, but how high the market will go remains a topic of debate.
As Cointelegraph reported, calls for $95,000 in June and even $150,000 by the end of the year are being reinforced by their respective sources.
Popular commentator BitQuant, the originator of the former prediction, last week suggested that BTC price dips within the range should be ignored.
“The only thing I’m confident about is that Bitcoin is going to $95K,” part of another X post insisted.
Daan Crypto trades meanwhile acknowledged the historical precedent is on bulls’ side — long periods of consolidation below all-time highs have resulted in bull market breakouts in previous BTC price cycles.
“Has now been trading against its previous cycle high for ~11 weeks. In 2017 this took ~4 weeks. In 2013 this took ~13 weeks,” he calculated.
“Both resulted in massive expansion afterwards. I’m not expecting $BTC to go slow this time either, once it leaves this price range behind us.”
Some, however, still have a larger correction as their base case.
Among them is popular trader Credible Crypto, who continues to eye the area around $60,000 as likely coming next.
Into the weekend, Material Indicators added that it was “fully prepared” for $60,000 to make a comeback.
“Currently not much liquidity based sentiment for sub $60k so expecting to range for an extended period of time,” it concluded.
Bitcoin halving “not priced in”
For popular trader and analyst, the latest Bitcoin block subsidy halving is “not priced in.”
In a YouTube video last week, Rekt Capital argued that despite having come and gone last month, the halving remains an extremely relevant BTC price catalyst.
Bitcoin, he says, is still in a post-halving “re-accumulation phase” — and the consolidation it brings has historically lasted for up to 160 days.
“The longer we can consolidate here, the better for Bitcoin,” the video stated.
Rekt Capital nonetheless said that upside continuation “inevitably ensues” once such phases are complete.
For this “most parabolic phase of the cycle,” he continued, a BTC price target of approximately $150,000 is appropriate.
This weekend, meanwhile, he suggested short-term sideways BTC price action may need several weeks to resolve.
PCE data leads macro week
With U.S. markets closed until May 28, Bitcoin has little impetus for major outside volatility during Wall Street hours.
The Asia trading session produced no surprises, and attention thus focuses on the end of the week.
Here, U.S. macro data prints return, headlined by the Producer Price Index (PCE) — known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
The mood when it comes to risk assets benefitting from loosening Fed policy remains conservative. Interest rate cuts are not expected until September or later, and other inflation data remains mixed.
Despite this, U.S. stocks continue to hit all-time highs.
“Short but busy week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote while acknowledging the stocks trend in its weekly macro diary dates entry on X.
Commenting on tendencies on both stocks and Bitcoin, trading firm Mosaic asset saw mixed conditions ultimately favoring risk-on sentiment.
“Daily momentum indicators like the S&P 500’s MACD and RSI are extended, indicating the potential for mean reversion lower. While I would not be surprised to see a partial retracement of the recent gains in the stock market, I expect any downside is just a pause in the bull market,” it wrote in one edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on May 23.
Mosaic likewise swayed toward an upside breakout for BTC/USD to come.
“Risky asset classes are particularly sensitive to easing conditions, which is why I’m closely following the action in Bitcoin and crypto mining stocks for additional confirmation that the bull market is intact,” it continued, noting Bitcoin’s two-month consolidation.
“Price is moving up the right side of the base over the past month and could be setting up a move to new highs. A breakout would provide further evidence that investor appetite for speculative assets remains strong.”
BTC whales stay in the game
When it comes to “buying the dip,” some Bitcoin investor cohorts are wasting no time below $69,000.
In focus this week are Bitcoin whales, the largest of these, who have been especially active as price has advanced and stayed near all-time highs.
“Bitcoin whales have been buying like never before,” Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, commented alongside data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
The data shows the balance of whale addresses active within the last 24 hours at nearly half a million BTC — easily the largest on record.
Cointelegraph continues to report on whale interest in Bitcoin, with CryptoQuant describing them as being in “acceleration mode” earlier this month.
“Bitcoin demand growth seems to be stabilizing after being in a decelerating trend since March,” it found.
