JPMorgan Chase analysts have created an index to analyse the influence of Donald Trump’s tweets on US interest rates, finding that the President’s 240-character outbursts are increasingly moving markets.
Dubbed the ‘Volfefe Index’ in a nod to Trump’s bizarre ‘covfefe’ tweet, the index examines how the President’s tweets influence volatility in the bond markets.
In a note, JPMorgan analysts say Trump’s tweets “have played a statistically significant role in elevating implied volatility”.
And, with the Tweeter-in-Chief recently ramping up the rhetoric against China, the European Central Bank and his own Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell in recent weeks, “market-moving tweets have ballooned in frequency this August,” say the authors.
However, most of Trump’s tweets still fail to make an impact, with just 146 of around 4000 sent during market hours since 2018 moving the market.
